How can Pakistan still make it to the World Cup 2023 semi-finals- All possible scenarios explained

Pakistan started their World Cup 2023 campaign in a great manner by winning their first two consecutive games that involved a record run chase against Sri Lanka in Hyderabad but since then Pakistan’s World Cup campaign has spiralled and now after losing three matches on the trot against India, Australia, and Afghanistan has made it quite difficult for Pakistan to secure a berth in the semi-finals of the World Cup.

Around 2 months back Pakistan was the No. 1 50 overs team in the ICC rankings and was one of the hot favourites to win the coveted trophy but a heavy defeat of 229 runs in the Asia Cup against arch-rivals India revealed a lot of shortcomings in the Pakistan team that were disguised earlier.

Similarly, in the World Cup after winning the first two games, the loss against India at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad jolted the team’s confidence and since then Pakistan has been on a losing spree and has lost their last 3 matches which has pushed them to the 5th spot in the points table has given a major jolt to their semi-final chances.

What lies ahead for Pakistan?

Pakistan has won two of their three matches in the ODI World Cup 2023 so far. Given their current position, there are three possible scenarios for them, two of which would result in qualification for the semi-finals.

Pakistan’s best chance to qualify would be to win all their remaining matches which includes matches against South Africa, New Zealand, and England. It will ensure that they have 12 points on the points table. 

However, they would still require Australia to lose at least one or two of their remaining matches as they have won 3 out of the 5 matches they have played so far. If Australia does not lose their remaining matches, then Pakistan will have to pray that New Zealand loses at least two of their remaining matches out of their 4 with heavy margins while they win all their remaining matches with good margins as it will leave both the team’s points tally at 12 and then their NRR will decide which team goes through.

Pakistan won 3 out of their 4 matches (5 out of 9)

Pakistan's chances of making it to the next stage are more complicated, but they will still be in contention if they can win three of their remaining four matches. In this scenario, they will be slightly behind the top three teams, and their only target to catch up to will be Australia.

Australia will need to lose at least two matches in this scenario, and if they do, net run rate will be the deciding factor. However, if Australia loses three of their last four matches, Pakistan will take the fourth or even third position depending upon their NRR.

Pakistan wins two or less games out of 4

If Pakistan wins only 2 of their remaining 4 matches they will be almost knocked out of the tournament. However, there have been instances where teams have qualified for the knockouts after winning less than 50% of their matches (Sunrisers Hyderabad in 2019 IPL) but the chances of something like this are very low and a lot of permutations and combinations are involved in it. 

If by chance, Pakistan wins only 1 match or doesn’t win any matches out of their remaining 4 then they will surely be knocked out of the World Cup.