How can Pakistan still make it to the semi-finals of the ODI World Cup 2023?

Pakistan who was once considered one of the favourites to reach the semifinals of the ODI World Cup is on the brink of getting knocked out of the tournament after the loss against South Africa yesterday. Pakistan started their campaign with two wins against Netherlands and Sri Lanka but since the defeat against India in their third fixture Pakistan has been on a losing spree by getting losing four consecutive matches on the trot.

Pakistan has been hot and cold in this tournament so far, after winning their second game against Sri Lanka by chasing a record target Pakistan’s performance has been below par. Currently, Pakistan is in the sixth position in the points table with 4 points from six games. After the loss against South Africa, their chance of qualifying for the knockout stages has gone down from 21% to 7%.

Pakistan is a team that is not known to qualify for the knockout stages with a bang and many times luck has propelled them to the qualifying as happened in Pakistan’s famous World Cup victory in 1992 where rain played a major role in them winning the coveted trophy. But this time around, things are looking quite grim for Pakistan as they need some complex permutations and combinations and heavy luck to go in their favour if they want to qualify for the semi-finals.

Pakistan’s glimmer of hope for the Semis

To have any hopes alive for qualifying further, Pakistan will first and foremost have to win all their remaining three matches and then hope that Australia lose three out of their four matches if this happens then Pakistan's road to the semifinals will be wide open. The best favourable outcomes that Pakistan would fare like this:

- New Zealand defeats Australia

- Bangladesh defeats the Netherlands

- India defeats England

- Sri Lanka defeats Afghanistan

- Pakistan defeats Bangladesh

- New Zealand defeats South Africa

- India defeats Sri Lanka

- Afghanistan defeats Netherlands

- Pakistan defeats New Zealand

- England defeats Australia

- India defeats South Africa

- Sri Lanka defeats Bangladesh

- Australia defeats Afghanistan

- England defeats the Netherlands

- New Zealand defeats Sri Lanka

- South Africa defeats Afghanistan

- Bangladesh defeats Australia

- Pakistan defeats England

- India defeats Netherlands 

Assuming these results, India will finish with 18 points, followed by New Zealand with 14, South Africa with 12, and Pakistan with 10. This would edge out Australia and Sri Lanka, who will each have 8 points. However, if Australia beats Bangladesh, Pakistan and Australia will be tied at 10 points and then the team with a better NRR will qualify for the semi-finals which is more likely to be Australia.